by Jeff Parks, guest blogger
Being from Kentucky, horse racing comes natural to me. Like nearly everyone else, I watched and was moved by American Pharoah’s Triple Crown run, which ended an historic 37-year streak of Triple Crown disappointments.
Prior to this year the longest drought was 25 years, stretching from Citation's 1948 achievement to Secretariat's performance in 1973.
Many people watching had never seen a Triple Crown won before.
While it was a great achievement and an historic moment, a logical question arises: how does American Pharoah compare with the best Triple Crown winners of the past?
And that comparison begins and ends with Secretariat.
We can use Minitab's statistical software to look at Secretariat's and American Pharoah's performance compared to the long history of the Belmont Stakes and the other Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.
The Belmont Stakes has been run at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, for 147 years, while the Preakness is 143 years old. The Kentucky Derby has been run since 1875, making it 141 years old. However, it has always been at Churchill Downs. The Belmont and Preakness have not always been run at their current location, which is why the Kentucky Derby is usually described as the longest consecutive running sporting event in the United States.
Today the Belmont is the longest of the three races at 1½ miles, but, like the other three races, it has not always been that distance over its entire history. But it has been kept at its current distance since 1926. That gives us 89 years of data to look at the winning horse times to see how they compare.
The data is below:
Year
Winner
Time
Time in seconds
2015
American Pharoah
02:26.7
146
2014
Tonalist
02:28.5
148
2013
Palace Malice
02:30.7
150
2012
Union Rags
02:30.4
150
2011
Ruler on Ice
02:30.9
150
2010
Drosselmeyer
02:31.6
151
2009
Summer Bird
02:27.5
147
2008
Da'Tara
02:29.7
149
2007
Rags to Riches ‡
02:28.7
148
2006
Jazil
02:27.9
147
2005
Afleet Alex
02:28.7
148
2004
Birdstone
02:27.5
147
2003
Empire Maker
02:28.3
148
2002
Sarava
02:29.7
149
2001
Point Given
02:26.6
146
2000
Commendable
02:31.2
151
1999
Lemon Drop Kid
02:27.9
147
1998
Victory Gallop
02:29.2
149
1997
Touch Gold
02:28.8
148
1996
Editor's Note
02:29.0
149
1995
Thunder Gulch
02:32.0
152
1994
Tabasco Cat
02:26.8
146
1993
Colonial Affair
02:30.0
150
1992
A.P. Indy
02:26.1
146
1991
Hansel
02:28.1
148
1990
Go And Go
02:27.2
147
1989
Easy Goer
02:26.0
146
1988
Risen Star
02:26.4
146
1987
Bet Twice
02:28.2
148
1986
Danzig Connection
02:29.8
149
1985
Creme Fraiche
02:27.0
147
1984
Swale
02:27.2
147
1983
Caveat
02:27.8
147
1982
Conquistador Cielo
02:28.2
148
1981
Summing
02:29.0
149
1980
Temperence Hill
02:29.8
149
1979
Coastal
02:28.6
148
1978
Affirmed †
02:26.8
146
1977
Seattle Slew †
02:29.6
149
1976
Bold Forbes
02:29.0
149
1975
Avatar
02:28.2
148
1974
Little Current
02:29.2
149
1973
Secretariat †
02:24.0
144
1972
Riva Ridge
02:28.0
148
1971
Pass Catcher
02:30.4
150
1970
High Echelon
02:34.0
154
1969
Arts and Letters
02:28.8
148
1968
Stage Door Johnny
02:27.2
147
1967
Damascus
02:28.8
148
1966
Amberoid
02:29.6
149
1965
Hail To All
02:28.4
148
1964
Quadrangle
02:28.4
148
1963
Chateaugay
02:30.2
150
1962
Jaipur
02:28.8
148
1961
Sherluck
02:29.2
149
1960
Celtic Ash
02:29.2
149
1959
Sword Dancer
02:28.4
148
1958
Cavan
02:30.2
150
1957
Gallant Man
02:26.6
146
1956
Needles
02:29.8
149
1955
Nashua
02:29.0
149
1954
High Gun
02:30.8
150
1953
Native Dancer
02:28.6
148
1952
One Count
02:30.2
150
1951
Counterpoint
02:29.0
149
1950
Middleground
02:28.6
148
1949
Capot
02:30.2
150
1948
Citation †
02:28.2
148
1947
Phalanx
02:29.4
149
1946
Assault †
02:30.8
150
1945
Pavot
02:30.2
150
1944
Bounding Home
02:32.2
152
1943
Count Fleet †
02:28.2
148
1942
Shut Out
02:29.2
149
1941
Whirlaway †
02:31.0
151
1940
Bimelech
02:29.6
149
1939
Johnstown
02:29.6
149
1938
Pasteurized
02:29.4
149
1937
War Admiral †
02:28.6
148
1936
Granville
02:30.0
150
1935
Omaha †
02:30.6
150
1934
Peace Chance
02:29.2
149
1933
Hurryoff
02:32.6
152
1932
Faireno
02:32.8
152
1931
Twenty Grand
02:29.6
149
1930
Gallant Fox †
02:31.6
151
1929
Blue Larkspur
02:32.8
152
1928
Vito
02:33.2
153
1927
Chance Shot
02:32.4
152
1926
Crusader
02:32.2
152
Note that the winners’ time has to be converted from Minutes: seconds format to straight seconds for analysis.
Using Minitab’s SPC (Statistical Process Control) Individual Value (I-chart) chart we can see:
Only two time periods show to be outside of control limits
- Secretariat's 1973 time of 144 seconds (2:24), which is the lowest time (meaning the fastest winner)
- High Echelon's 1970 time of 154 seconds (2:34), which is longest time (meaning the slowest winner)
The overall average winner time over the past 89 years is 148.81, seconds (2:28.8). Secretariat’s time is more than 4 seconds faster. Now, that is 3% faster than the average winner. And it may be tempting to ask, “So what?”
But let’s look at this in another way. Rather than looking at control limits, which a SPC chart does, how about approaching this from a capability perspective? Let’s have Secretariat's time be a lower spec limit and assess the probability of another horse beating that time.
Using Minitab’s Normality test and Graphing function we can see that:
The data is not normally distributed and we can see Secretariats time as an outlier on the far left.
When performing a Capability Analysis with non-normal data we have a few choices. We can transform the data or identify the distribution and then do a capability analysis on that particular distribution.
Minitab has a feature known as a Johnson Transformation, which can automatically transform many nonnormal distributions and analyze them using the spec limits provided with little effort by the user.
This is one of the advantages of the Minitab statistical software. When we do this using a Johnson Transformation with the 144 Secretariat time as a lower spec limit we get:
Or .36% chance of any horse achieving that time. A very unlikely event indeed.
Secretariat holds the record for the Belmont. But he also has the record in the other two legs of the Triple Crown as well:
- Kentucky Derby: 119 seconds (1:59)
- Preakness: 114 seconds (1:54)
Let's apply this same approach to the Kentucky Derby, which has had the same distance since 1896
There's a 5.54% chance of a horse beating Secretariat's Kentucky Derby time.
How about the Preakness?
A 3.5% probability.
The probability of a horse beating Secretariats time in all 3 Triple Crown races would be
(.0036) *(.0554) * (.035) = 7x10^4%
In other words, in about one million years we would only see this happen 7 times.
When you consider that only 43 Triple Crown opportunities have happened since Secretariat's run in 1973, and the horses are 3 years old when they race, about 14 generations of horses have tried and failed to beat Secretariat's record.
Billions of dollars and countless time and effort are spent each year trying to make thoroughbred horses faster. The training is supposedly better, the nutrition and supplements are better and, yes, the drugs they give these horses are all better than they were 43 years ago.
Yet despite that, no one has beaten “Big Red,” as Secretariat was known. After his death, an autopsy found Secretariat had a heart 2.75 times larger than that of the average horse.
American Pharoah is a great horse who had a fantastic run, and excited us all by delivering the first Triple Crown victory in 37 years. But he is no Secretariat.
And apparently, no other horse ever was, either.
About the Guest Blogger
Jeff Parks has been a Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt since 2002 and involved in process improvement work since 1997. He is a former U.S. Navy nuclear submarine officer and lives in Louisville, Ky., with his wife and 7 children. He can be reached at Jwparks407@hotmail.com and via Twitter, @JeffParks3.
Photo of American Pharoah used under Creative Commons license 2.0. Source: Maryland GovPics https://www.flickr.com/people/64018555@N03